Climate research in the geologic past

Fig.1. Global map as published by Lyell in his "Principles of Geology" (8th edition 1850) to illustrate the past climatic changes.

The climate of a region, as experienced by daily observations of a cool morning and hot midday, was for very long time considered simply the result of the height of the sun above the horizon. This idea forced a very simple view of the distribution of climates on Earth, to the poles temperature dropped, to the equator it raised, forming so large parallel climatic belts. Such a static view of the Earth also didn’t need or even allow climate changes in the past or in the future time.
With the establishment of the deep geological time by the first geologists and naturalists it became clear that not only the distribution of sea and land changed over time, but so did climate.

Read on how Lyell explained climate change by shifting "pseudo"-continents over the globe in the post at the American Scientific Guest Blog.

Glacier outburst floods threat

Glaciers can influence societies in their catchment area in different ways, they act as a water storage for dry summers, but glaciers can also trigger geological catastrophes and endanger people.

Glacier outburst floods (GOF) refer to the rapid and sudden discharge of water from within a glacier or from an ice-dammed lake, within minutes to hours a flood wave occurs possibly damaging infrastructures and killing people kilometres away from the glacier which initiated the disaster. In the Alps and North America most outburst floods occur in summertime when during melt-season large quantities of water can accumulate inside the glacier or as ice-dammed lake.

In the Andes and the Himalaya also a second type of floods is common, outbursts from moraine-dammed lakes, referred as glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF).
The area between the moraine and the retreating glacier can be filled with the melt-water, and as the glacier continues to shrink the lake continues to grow. Various processes can lead to the failure of a moraine dam, waves and currents of the lake can erode the dam, ice contained in the dam can melt, the detritus forming the dam can settle with time and so lowering the effective height of the dam.

Fig.1. Laguna Paron (4.140m a.s.l. Cordillera Blanca - Peru, foto from Wikipedia) in 2009, a lake dammed by the debris-mantled glacier Hatunraju with a capacity of 75 million cubic metres before the lake level was lowered by 20 meters artificially by tunnelling through bedrock on the left of the moraine dam. The lake is surrounded by moraines 250m high. It is unknown how stable the moraine of Hatunraju is, if this dam fails a flood of around 50 million cubic metres could sweep downstream and severely damage the town of Caraz, 16 kilometres away.
The worst glacial lake outburst in historic time was caused by the failure of such a moraine-dam in Peru. December 3. 1941 the town of Huaraz was partially destroyed by a flood that killed 60.000 people.

Floods resulting from moraine-dam failure have been increasing in frequency in the Himalaya over the past 70 years or so, although in terms of loss of life they have been by accident much less disastrous then in the Andes.
One of the best-documented outburst floods in Nepal took place on 4. August 1985 when the terminus of the Langmoche Glacier in the Khumbu Himal collapsed into Dig Tsho glacial lake (Video), creating a displacement wave hat overtopped the moraine dam and triggered its collapse. Estimated 10 million cubic metres of water were released - the wave destroyed a power plant and five people were killed and eroded and destabilized the valley floor for 90 kilometres downstream.

This case triggered major research projects of potential dangerous glaciers and glacial lakes, until 2004 more then 20 potentially dangerous lakes in Nepal and 24 in Bhutan were identified, one of the most impressive and dangerous case was lake Tsho Rolpa (4.450m a.s.l.), fed by the Trakarding Glacier. By 2002 the lake was 3,5 kilometres long, 0,5 kilometres width and 135m deep, with an estimated volume of 110 million cubic metres. The moraine damming the lake up was 150m high, with a core of decaying ice.
Emergency measures were initiated with the installation of an early-warning system to detect downstream travelling a flood-wave and later by the construction of an artificial spillway, lowering the lake by 4 metres.
However these are considered only temporary solutions, as a lowering of the lake level by at lest 15 to 20 metres is necessary to prevent spillover or failure of the dam crest, a costly procedure in this region.

This last case shows also the financial problems facing poor countries, often disaster prevention or mitigation are limited by the available resources, and considering the continuing glacier retreat expected in the next decades the increase of problematic lakes (both in number and volume) will by of major concern in the future.

Fig.2. The glacierized Himalayan border region of Bhutan (bottom) and Tibet (top) seen in a satellite image. From the crest of the mountain range clean glaciers flow northwards onto the Tibetan Plateau, while debris-mantled glaciers flow south into densely forested valleys.
At bottom right are a series of moraine-dammed lakes and incipient lakes, formed by the rapid coalescence of supraglacial ponds. The large lake at the very right is lake Luggye Tsho. A breach of the dam in 1994 led to severe flooding and loss of life up to 200 kilometres downstream. (ASTER-image by NASA, 08 June 2006).

Bibliography:

HAMBREY, M. & ALEAN, J.(2004): Glaciers. 2nd ed. Cambridge University Press: 377
HORSTMANN, B. (2004): Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in Nepal and Switzerland. New Threats Due to Climatic Change. Germanwatch - Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung.
KALTENBORN, B. P., NELLEMANN, C., VISTNESS, I. I. (Eds) (2010): High mountain glaciers and climate change - Challenges to human livelihoods and adaptation. United Nations Environment Programme, GRID-Arendal.

Modeling Glacier Change 2000-2100

According to a simulation by researchers of the University of Alaska (RADIC, V. & HOCK, R.) and based on various scenarios of precipitation change and a temperature increase, with a mean value of ca. 2°C, as predicted by most climate models, until the year 2100 the 120.000 glaciers located (mainly) in middle latitudes will experience a massive loss of 21% of the actual ice volume.

Observing the reactions of more than 300 glaciers to the climatic change in the period of 1963 to 2004 the models were extrapolated to simulate a significant increase in temperature and slight increase in precipitation and the effects of these variables on the mass balance of the glaciers.
The projections show in the 19 chosen glacierized regions different glacier retreat values, depending from factors like elevation, surface properties and effective temperature rise in the region.
According to the proposed scenarios, mountain ranges in temperate climatic zones will experience the most massive volume change, in the European Alps glacier will loss up to 75% of the actual ice volume, similar values to the New Zealand Alps with 72% and the Caucasus.
In contrast mountain ranges with a high average altitude, like in Asia or the Andes, will experience much lower loss percentages, with an average value of 20%.

I discussed a previous research dealing with possible effects of such glacier retreat on human society in this post.

Fig.1. Regional twenty-first-century glacier volume change expressed in per cent from initial volume in year 2000, the results are presented for 19 regions based on temperature and precipitation projections from the ten applied climatic models, after RADIC & HOCK 2011.

Fig.2. Example of glacier retreat in the Alps in the past 100 years: The Waxegg-glacier in the Zillertaler Alps at the border between Austria and Italy ca. 1900-1903 and 2006. Historic image from ROTHPLETZ, A. & PLATZ, E. (1903): Alpine Majestäten und ihre Gefolge - Die Gebirgswelt der Erde in Bildern, 268 Ansichten aus der Gebirgswelt.
For the history of glacier monitor projects see this post.

Bibliography:

RADIC, V. & HOCK, R. (2011): Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise. Nature Geoscience doi:10.1038/ngeo1052

The discovery of the ruins of ice

"It has already been said, that no small part of the present work refers to the nature and phenomena of glaciers. It may be well, therefore, before proceeding to details, to explain a little the state of our present knowledge respecting these great ice-masses, which are objects of a kind to interest even those who know them only from description, whilst those who have actually witnessed their wonderfully striking and grand characteristics can hardly need an inducement to enter into some inquiry respecting their nature and origin."

James, D. Forbes (1900): "Travels Trough the Alps." [page 17]

Fig.1. C. Wolf and M. Descourtis "La Grosse Pierre Sur Le Glacier de Vorderaar Canton de Berne Province d'Oberhasli", Amsterdam 1785.

Today worldwide glaciers were studied and monitored as climate proxies, and the recent measurements show that almost all of them are retreating fast. The story about glaciers, their influence on the landscape and their possible use to reconstruct and monitor climate is an intriguing one, with many triumphs, setbacks and changes of mind.

For centuries, if not even millennia, the high altitude belt of mountain ranges were a region visited and travelled by man, however also haunted and forbidding places. The glaciers, masses of ice enclosing peaks and extending their tongues into valleys, were considered the residence of mountain spirits, then during the medieval times the prison of damned souls (the Italian poet Dante Alighieri 1265-1321 imagined the centre of hell as a frozen wasteland) and the playground of demons, who from time to time send avalanches and debris flows into the valley.
Despite these myths there was some early insights of what glaciers actually really are made, the Greek historian and geographer Strabo (63 - 23) describes a voyages trough the Alps during the reign of Augustus and mentions

"…there is no protection against the large quantities of snow falling, and that form the most superficial layers of a glacier…[]. It's a common knowledge that a glacier is composed by many different layers lying horizontally, as the snow when falling and accumulating becomes hard and crystallises...[]."

However the knowledge got lost, and was only rediscovered during the Renaissance. Leonardo da Vinci´s (1452-1519) is considered one of the greatest Renaissance-geniuses, he studied anatomy, biology and geology, however regarding the glaciers of the Alps his ideas were somehow confused, the thought glaciers were formed by not melted hail accumulating through the summer. But soon the study of nature experiences an incredible raise, and glaciers find place in various descriptions of travelling scholars.

Between 1538 and 1548 glaciers were labelled (even if not depicted) with the term "Gletscher" on topographic maps of Switzerland. In his account on the Swiss land the Theologian Josias Simler in 1574 describes the Rhone-glacier.
The first historic depiction of a glacier is considered the watercolour-paint of the Vernagtferner in the Ötztaler Alps from 1601. The Vernagtferner was a glacier that repeatedly dammed up the Rofen-lake (named after the Rofen-valley), which outbursts caused heavy damage and loss of property, particularly in the years 1600, 1678, 1680, 1773, 1845, 1847 and 1848.
In 1642 the Swiss editor Matthaeus Merian the Older in his "Topographie Helvetiae, Rhaetiae et Valesiae" published various copper engravings of glaciers, and in 1706 Johann Heinrich Hottinger is interested to explain the motion of "the mountains of ice" in his "Descriptio Montium Glacialium Helveticorum."
Johann Jakob Scheuchzer, visiting in the year 1705 the Rhône Glacier, published his observations of the "true nature of the springs of the river Rhône" in the opus "Itinera per Helvetiae alpinas regiones facta annis 1702-1711", and confirms the idea that glaciers are formed by the accumulation of snow and they move and flow.

Fig.2. The description of the Rhone glacier according to Scheuchzer´s "Itinera per Helvetiae alpinas regiones facta annis 1702-1711", the engraving shows the "false springs at the mountain Furca" (M, N, O - left and right of the picture) and the "true springs" (J, K, L) coming from the snout of the "great glacier" (A-F), surrounded by the "small glacier" (G, H).

The increasing interest to study glaciers in the Alps is also encouraged by enthusiastic travel reports; in his "Voyage pittoresque aux glaciers" the A.C. Bordier of 1773 describes the Bosson glacier as a "huge marble ruins of a devastated city".
The naturalist Horace Benedict de Saussure (1740-1799) is fascinated by the mountains of his homeland, he climbed mountains around Geneva since 1758, and after 1760 he travelled more than 14 times trough the Alps (considering the possibilities in this time an extraordinary achievement). Between 1767 to 1779 the first volume of his "Voyages dans les Alpes" is published, were he reassumes his observations and theories about the visited glaciers, he recognized moraines and large boulders as the debris accumulated by the glacier tongue and proposes to map them to interfere the former extent of glaciers. Despite this exact statement, de Saussure failed to connect large boulders found in the foreland of the mountains to the glaciers of the Alps. He assumed that these rocks were transported on their recent locations by an immense flood. That seemed to explain why most of the boulders found scattered around the plains of Germany came in first place from the regions of Scandinavia, where the same lithology where found in the crystalline continental basement, like Precambrian metamorphic rocks and paleozoic sediments. The theory worked lesser to explain the foreland Alpine rocks - to transport boulders from the Alps the flood at least had to reach 1000 of meters.
The idea of a flood as the explanation for "glacial" deposits became largely accepted, it seemed to fit the description of the biblical flood; even Lyell and Darwin assumed that huge erratic boulders were transported by swimming ice drafts on top of a flood wave.
That glaciers could propagate far out of their valleys was however not an unusual idea for local inhabitants, who observed and experienced the growth and recess of glaciers. In academic circle this approach was a little more difficult.
A contest thought to demonstrate the former extension of Swiss glaciers initiated by the Swiss pastor Jakob Samuel Wyttenbach in 1781 (maybe inspired be the advance of the Alpine glacier in 1770) didn't arise any interest.

"Could it be proven to ourselves on the available documentation that both by the progress of our ice mountains as by our misbehaviour once for pasture most suitable land is currently covered by ice…[]"

There were only careful speculations considering a former expansion of glacier: the geologists James Hutton (1726-1797) and his friend John Playfair (1748-1819) speculated about glaciations of the northern hemisphere. In 1826 a publication by the Danish mineralogist and mountain climber Jens Esmark (1763-1839) was translated into English, in this paper Jesmark discussed the possibilities that glaciers where much greater in the past then today. J.D. Forbes and Robert Jameson (who were the geology professors of Charles Darwin at Edinburgh University, Darwin in his autobiography of 1876 remembers "The sole effect they produced on me was the determination never as long as I lived to read a book on Geology or in any way to study the science.") discussed glacial theories during their lectures. And even Buckland, who still in 1831 argued "northern region of the earth seems to have undergone successive changes from heat to cold", in 1837 was converted to Lyell's uniformatism and considered that sudden changes, like an ice age and glacier expansion, simply don't happen in geology.

In 1815 Jean Pierre Perraudin, a chamois hunter in the Val de Bagnes, told to the engineer Ignatz Venetz his theory that the glaciers once covered the entire valley, and Venetz mapped features that made him even recognize that once the entire Swiss was covered by ice. Vernetz´s lecture on the assembly of the Swiss association for natural history in 1829 found little interest, only Jean de Charpentier, director of the salt mine in the city of Bex (Western Swiss), who 14 years earlier had meet and discussed with Perraudin, this time accepted and got interested in this theory.
He begun a detailed mapping project, and in 1834 Charpentier presented again before the Swiss association the results of his investigations, but the flood theory had still much supporter. One of the critics in the public was a former student of Charpentier, named Jean Louis Rodolphe Agassiz, respected palaeontologist by the establishment. Charpentier invited Agassiz to visit the city of Bex and surrounding mountains, and to observe glaciers.
In the following year (1837) Agassiz held an enthusiastic lecture about glaciers, ice ages and ice shields, and in 1840 published a detailed study of modern glaciers, their deposits and their spurs in his "Etudes sur les glaciers."
Agassiz experienced the same scepticism as many other ice-age proponents before.

"I think that you should concentrate your moral and also your pecuniary strength upon this beautiful work on fossil fishes .... In accepting considerable sums from England, you have, so to speak, contracted obligations to be met only by completing a work which will be at once a monument to your own glory and a landmark in the history of science ...[ ]...No more ice, not much of echinoderms, plenty of fish..."
Alexander von Humboldt in a letter to Agassiz on 2. December 1837

However Agassiz had good connections to the most important geologist of his time. Soon he could persuade William Buckland and later Charles Lyell. After that the most respected geologist gets convinced, the rest, as always, is history:

"advice - never try & persuade ye world of a new theory - persuade 2 or 3 of ye tip top men - & ye rest will go with ye stream, as Dr B. did with Sir H. Davy and Dr. Wollaston in case of Kirkdale Cave"
Edward Jackson, about an advice given by his professor Buckland in 1832

Fig.3. Reconstruction of the glacier that filled the valley of St. Amarin (southern Vosges, France), probably the first tentative reconstruction of an ice age glacier - from COLLOMB (1847): "Preuves de l´existence d´anciens glaciers dans les vallées des Vosges."

Agassiz research on the Unteraar-glacier established the foundations of glaciology; he recorded the dimension of the glacier, his velocity and even ventured inside the glacier by passing trough a glacial mill. Soon after 1850 the measurements methods introduced by Agassiz were carried out on various glaciers of the Alps and repeated nearly every year.

Fig.4. The Hintereis-glacier (in the centre of the picture), Hochjoch-glacier (left) and the Kesselwand- glacier, drawing by Schmetzer 1891, the Hintereis-glacier is one of the glacier with the longest active monitoring program, values about his length change reach back to 1848, since then the glacier lost 3km of his tongue.
"Aus den tiroler Alpen: Der Abschluß des Oetzthales mit dem Hochjochgletscher (links), dem Hintereisferner (in der Mitte) und dem Kesselwandferner (rechts oben). Nach der Natur gezeichnet von K. Schmetzer (1891)."

These records showed various fluctuations, but from 1850 onward a general trend of recession of glaciers in the Alps is observable. This trend has experienced a strong increase in the last 50 years, causing concern for the fast change in the landscape, the destabilisation of the rock walls once supported by the melting glaciers and the alteration of the discharge and hydrology of mountain ranges.

Fig.5. Temperature rise in the Alps and length loss of the glaciers of the Ötztaler Alps (western Austria) in the period 1900-2010. The valley glaciers with their tongues extending in the valleys showed the strongest retreat and degradation of the studied Austrian glaciers.

Geology and Cyclicity: Milankovitch´s idea

"I do not think that's my duty to teach to the ignorant the most basic things, and I have never forced anyone to accept my theory, on so far nobody could expose something."

Milutin Milankovitch in 1950

Milutin Milankovitch (1879 - 1958) was born in a relatively wealthy Serbian family, so it was almost a kind of obligation for him to archive a higher education degree and later take over the family business. So he studied agriculture, but following a passion for natural sciences he went to Vienna, where he in 1904 concluded his studies as an engineer.
Five years later he returned to Belgrad where he found employment as professor for mathematical studies at the University. Like Croll he was in search of a scientific problem worth his efforts, and in 1911, sharing some presumably good wine with a friend, he decided to develop a mathematical theory to explain climate changes on the planets of the solar system.

He studied the work of Croll, recognized his previous achievements but also noted his insufficient data. Milankovitch also consulted the work of the German mathematician Ludwig Pilgrim, who in 1904 published exact calculations of the orbital eccentricity, earth's obliquity and the rotation of the axis of earth (change of the perihelion). Pilgrim also tried to correlate the eccentricity with the occurrence of ice ages.
Between 1912 and the beginning of World War I Milankovitch published some preliminary abstracts of his developing theory, concluding that all three factors, in contrast to previous authors, are important to explain earth's climate. At the beginning of the War, Milankovitch was arrested as Serbian officer and imprisoned in his hometown Daly, but fortunately he was carrying with him his work, and so even in the first night as prisoner he continued to work. "When after midnight I looked around in the room, I needed some time to realize where I was. The small room seemed to me like an accommodation for one night during my voyage in the Universe."
Soon after he was released and travelled back to Belgrad, where he continued his work during the entire War and published some ideas about the climate of Mars and Venus.

Finally he published his theory in 1920 "Mathematische Theorie der durch Sonneneinstrahlung ausgelösten Wärmephänomene" (Mathematical theory of thermal phenomena caused by solar radiation).

Fig.1. Variations in the Earth's orbital parameters:
1. Eccentricity: the shape of the orbit around the sun.
2. Changes in obliquity: changes in the angle that Earth's axis makes with the plane of Earth's orbit.
3. Precession: the change in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation, i.e., the axis of rotation behaves like the spin axis of a top that is winding down; hence it traces a circle on the celestial sphere over a period of time.
Together, the periods of these orbital motions have become known as Milankovitch cycles. These parameters influence the amount of solar energy on earth´s surface, especially during summer of the northern hemisphere (55°-65°N).

In his theory he postulated:
- Glaciations are caused by variations of astronomical parameters
- The parameters influence the amount of solar energy on earth´s surface, especially during summer of the northern hemisphere (55°-65°N)
- It is possible to calculate these changes, and so calculate the climate in the past.

The German meteorologists Wladimir Köppen and Alfred Wegener supported the new theory, and noted the apparent coincidence of the calculated curve with the by Penck and Brückner postulated four European glaciations.

Fig. 2. Figure from KÖPPEN & WEGENER 1924, where they correlated the calculated cycles to the know ice ages at that time.

Fig.3. Outcrop of the Trubi-Formation at Capo Spartivento (South-Italy), a succession of Globigerina-marls from the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition. The regular stripes are caused by organic rich layers, thought to be caused by changes in the biological productivity in response of changes of the astronomical parameters - the Milankovitch cycles.

References:

CHORLTON, W. (ed) (1985): Ice Ages (Planet Earth). Time-Life Books: 176
KÖPPEN, W. & WEGENER, A. (1924): Die Klimate der geologischen Vorzeit. Borntraeger, Berlin: 256

Resources:

NASA Earth Observatory: Milutin Milankovitch (1879 - 1958). Accessed 26.06.2010

Megafauna Methane collapse

There are lots of hypothesis dealing with the extinction of the Pleistocene Megafauna. Now a research team of the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque adds a something different approach to the problem of climate change as extinction cause. SMITH et al. published a paper where they compared the production of methane of modern farm animals to extinct herbivores. Methane is a very effective green house gas. The research team observed in the geological record strong variations of the concentration of methane between the last glacial maximum, 18.000 years ago, and the Younger Dryas (13.000 years ago). Especially at the beginning of the temperature drop of the Younger Dryas the concentration of methane diminished considerable fast. The research team speculates that with the beginning extinction of large herbivores an important source of methane was removed from the climate system, destabilizing climate and environment end enforcing the extinction rate. The fast changes observed, faster than previously known variations, maybe are also related to human activity, disproving precedent research that excluded humans as triggers for the Pleistocene extinction.

References

SMITH, F.A.; ELLIOTT, S.M.. & YONS, K. (2010): Methane emissions from extinct megafauna. Nature Geoscience. Published online: 23. May 2010: doi:10.1038/ngeo877

Sea-Level Highstand disproves ice-age CO2 connection?

The ice ages on Earth could be influenced by CO2 levels differently than previously believed. The study of speleotherms in the cave of Vallgornera situated on the Spanish island of Mallorca revealed that the polar caps were as small as today 81,000 years ago - despite lower CO2 levels.
A team of scientists of the University of Iowa has studied aragonitic and calcitic mineral deposits from five caverns situated; depending of the sea level - itself varying by the amount of “captured” water in ice caps up to 130m - the caves were inundated and different mineralogical deposition occurred.

The dated samples suggest that the sea level around 81,000 years ago was about a meter above the current value. "We have reconstructed the sea level with really high precision," says researcher Doral to the German newspaper “SPIEGEL ONLINE”.Co-author Bogdan Onac from the University of South Florida explains that Mallorca is ideal for this kind of research because tectonically stable and the observed variations should be “true” variations of sea level, not falsified by geological movements or isostatic rebound.

If the sea level 81,000 years ago was actually where the researchers suggest, an interesting problem arises: it doesn’t support the calculated 100.000-year cycle of glacial advances. Also it contradicts the direct ice-CO2 connections - despite low CO2 concentrations, and weaker greenhouse effect, the ice caps on earth were not as great as previously tough, and in dimensions comparable to modern conditions.

So are climate denialists right, and is there no such thing as anthropogenic greenhouse effect?

No, the authors want to take the results in a scientific context: the research doesn’t make claims about the global temperature during this time, only about the possible ice volume, and the amount of ice is not only controlled by temperature, but also for example by insolation of the sun, stronger 80.000 years ago then today. "What happened 80,000 years ago, is not the same as what happened today," said Onac.

REFERENCES:

DORALE et al. (2010): Sea-Level Highstand 81,000 Years Ago in Mallorca. Science Vol.327(5967): 860 - 863

Mission CryoSat-2

Source: Project Cryosat and Cryosat-2

The ice in the polar regions play a crucial role in earths climate, but the quantification of the ice and measuring it's change trough time is difficult.
Satellite images provide a good tool to determinate the area, but the thickness can only measured on single points by costly drilling trough the ice. New generation satellites, like the American "Icesat" use RADAR technology to determinate precisely the ice thickness, but snow cover and water are still a problem, and can distort the measurements. After the failure tof the European Space Agency to send a new generation satellite - Cryosat (crashed only few seconds after the start in 2005)- in the orbit, now his brother - Cryosat2- is almost ready.

In December the satellite will leave Munich (Germany) to be transported to the Kazakhstan spaceport Baikonur, from where it will be send in February 2010 with a modified rocket (a former atom weapon carrying Dnepr model) in space.
With a new RADAR-altimeter ("Siral") Cryosat2 will take 20.000 measurements per second in the next three years with an unequalled precision, and be able to determinate changes of thickness in ice of only few centimetres.

Meanwhile reports of Canadian researches under David Barber (University of Manitoba) confirm the receding trend of the ice cover in the Arctic. On 12 September 2009 the ice covered 5,1 million square kilometres, only 2007 and 2008 the area was lesser compared to the mean value of the 30 years of satellite measurements. Compared to the long term observed between 1979 and 2000, the remaining actual ice cover is also 70% of the former area, the area of long lasting ice diminished from 90 to 17%.
Not only the area is declining, also the thickness is inferior, in some areas the thickness diminished from 10m to 2m. The thinner ice is more fragile, and can not resist wave movements or storms.

Biologists are concerned about the status of the polar bear, with a valued population of 25.000 animals: the ice is in vast regions to thin to be used by the animals to hunt, and the sea freeze later in the year.
In the area of Churchill, in the Canadian province of Manitoba ,the biologist Ian Sirling (Canadian Wildlife Service) observed a possible related fact - an increasing of cannibalism events from elder on younger animals.

No more ice on Kilimanjaro ?

After Thompson et al. 2009, interview to Dr. Thompson mp3

The glacial record in Africa is restricted to the highest peaks of this continent, mainly to mountains of east Africa: Mount Kilimanjaro (5895m), Mount Kenya (5.199m), the Ruwenzori (5.119m) and on the northern margin of Africa in the High Atlas. Traces of two Pliocene-Pleistocene glaciations have been found on Mt Kilimanjaro, the oldest of which have been dated to about 2.0My (OSMASTON, 2004). Younger, in part uncertain glacier advances are dated to 1,0My, 0,4My and during the last glacial maximum (20.000y). Today three main glaciers persist on the summit of the volcano - the Northern Ice Field (NIF), the Southern Ice Field and the Furtwängler Glacier; some smaller glaciers are distributed on the slope of the mountain. Cores taken from all three glaciers showed that the ice cover on Kilimanjaro persisted for at least 11.700 years.

Isotopic record of oxygen isotopes from the Northern Ice Field (NIF), after THOMPSON et al. 2002

In modern times the dramatic loss of Kilimanjaro´s ice cover has attracted global attention, and has been a symbol for changing climate in Africa in popular media. The glaciers have considerable lost volume and surface, from 12,06 square kilometer in 1912 to 2,6-2,5 square kilometer in 2000. In the last 7 years ulterior 26% of this remaining ice are gone, leaving 1,85 square kilometer back. But not only the ice covered surface - easy to observe by aerial photographs - diminishes, but more important the glaciers are rapidly thinning, up to 0,5m thickness loss per year. This glacier mass lost is harder to determinate (mostly by measuring with stakes you got only punctual data) but crucial to understand the glacier balance.
If this melting rate persists, until 2022-2033 there will no more glacier ice left on the summit.

The widespread retreat of glaciers in Africa suggests a common driver, and not only local factors like deforestation, land use or humidity change on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro. The long record that this ice fields provided, demonstrate that for more then 11.000 years ice persisted without essential melting or mass lost, even during the end of the humid phase in Africa and change to more drier climate and subsequent droughts (p.e. 4.200 years ago). This seems to minimize the influence of changing precipitation on the glacier mass balance, and emphasizes changing in the temperature regime on the summit of the mountain.

References:

EHLERS, J. & GIBBARD, P.L. (2007): Glaciations. In (ed): ELIAS, S.A. (2006): Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science. Elsevier : 290-300

OSMASTON, H. (2004). Quaternary glaciations in the East African mountains. In J. Ehlers and P. L. Gibbard (eds): QuaternaryGlaciations - Extent and Chronology, Part III: South America, Asia, Africa, Australasia, Antarctica: 139-150.

THOMPSON, L.G. et al. (2009): Glacier loss on Kilimanjaro continues unabated. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The Permafrost Menace

The term permafrost is primarily associated with regions such as Alaska and Siberia, with a vegetation-free tundra, rock-hard frozen ground, and with the famous finds of well preserved carcasses of ice age mammals. But permafrost occurs in much wider geographic range, at least 23% of the Earth surface is influenced by permafrost.

Permanently frozen ground or permafrost is by definition material (bedrock or loose material), which remains at least for one year or two winters frozen, with temperatures below 0 ° C. Water, and so ice, is not necessary "needed" in permafrost, therefore called dry permafrost, but this kind of frozen ground plays geomorphological a minor role.

Climatic change has important effects on the distribution and the energy balance of permafrost , so influencing the amount of ice conservated in it. Permafrost occurence depends of various climatic (like temperature, insolation, precipitation and snowcover) and also from geomorphological (like exposition) and biological (like vegetation cover) factors - the role and interplaying between this factors is still poorly understand.
Permafrost in the middle latutudes lays only some degress under the melting point of water of 0°C, even a sligthly warming of the mean air temperature - and surface temperature, can heavily affect permafrost. The distribution diminuishes, and the depth of the active layer - the layer of permafrost that defrost´s during summer, increases.

How exactly permafrost reacts to the observed warming of 0,5°C during the last century in the Alps is still poorly known, and the exact mechanisms not understand. The strong retreat of glaciers is obvious, but permafrost was though to react much slower, because of the insolation effect of the covering debris layer. But observations of temperature profiles in drillholes showed that percoliating water, resulting from melting of more superficial ice, can "tranport" heat much faster in the underground.

Studying permafrost is a hard job, especially if it hides inside compact rock. PermaNet drill site in the valley of Schnals.

Morains and talus cones not only are habitats for specific, sometimes endemic animals and plants, but consists of loose debris hold together most time only by ice in the cavities between the boulders. Loosing permafrost can destabilise rock walls and debris, causing rockfalls and debris flows, and so putting infrastructures and humans life in danger. In the last 10 years the greatest rockfalls in the Swiss Alps occured in permafrost affected areas, one of the most spectacular in summer 2006 felt from the east-wall of the Eiger.

The rockfall of the Thurwieser mountain (3.652m, 46° 29` 45`` N, 10° 31` 28`` E) occurred on 19.09.2004 (first image befor, second after). 4,5 million cubic meters material felt on the underlying glacier and boulders up to 50 cubic meters slipped on it until 2000m a.s.l. The rockfall was caused probable by ice degradation.

The melting permafrost can influence the percolation and the paths that groundwater can take, so influencing springs. Observations in the european Alps and the Colorado Front Range showed also a change in the water chemistry in lakes and springs where permafrost features, like rock glaciers, occur in the catchement area. The change in water balance and presence can also effect the distribution of vegetation and the species richness of a habitat.

debris flow calendar

The past weekend strong rainfalls caused various debris flows in my near surrounding area, with significant damages and one roadmen missing after a debris flow hit the street he was clearing from detritus.

To understand where and when these events hit is vital for appropriate response tactics and risk evaluation for urban areas. Thereby, the frequency and magnitude of debris flow events are of especial interest, also in view of climate change and human impact.
Information for past debris flow events in historic time can be obtained by studying archives or contemporaneous eyewitness reports/images. Prehistoric events can be reconstructed by 14C-dating of buried soils, dendrochronolgy or lichenometry. The disadvantage of these approaches is their limited time span and coarse resolution.

In the bottom sediments of the lake of Braies, in the Dolomite Alps, another possible long term record was, and still is, studied (IRMLER 2003; IRMLER et al. 2006). The lake Braies is an alpine lake on 1.492m a.s.l. with a maximum area of nearly 36ha and a catchment area of 30 square kilometres. It is surrounded by mountains up to 2.800m, dominated by dolo- and limestone formations. Several debris flow cones extend from the slopes of the mountains to the southern and eastern shores of lake Braies.

View to south with the main debris flow cones entering the lake Braies.

Simplified geological map of the lake and surrounding area (after IRMLER 2003).

In thin sections recovered from cores taken from the bottom lake sediments between annual laminations several "event layers", representing debris flows, were recognised.
Entering the lake, the debris flow brought more fine sediments in the lake then the average sedimentation rate of some millimetres per year. Under the microscope graduated layers, with progressive fining upward sequence, from well-sorted fine to middle sand at the base to silt and clay on the top could be recognized. Load casts and flame like structures support reconstructed rapid deposition. These structures indicate that the sediment moved as underflow (hyperpycnal flow - density current) into the lake basin.
A second category of layers lacked the above mentionetd characteristics, nevertheless these layers show a graduation and are much thicker than the surrounding lamination - up to seven times. These sediments are interpreted as deposits of overflow currents (hypopycnal or homopycnal flow).

Example of the studied core with recognizable annual lamination (from IRMLER 2003).

Erosive contact between annual lamination and a debris flow layer. The base of a debris flow layer is usually very coarse and the single grains more or less the same size.
Photo C) and D) shows so-called "flame structures" and small grooves - caused by the erosion of a debris flow event (Picture size ca 3.9 mm), from IRMLER 2003.

With this approach a debris flow calendar for the last 2250 years could be reconstructed. (IRMLER et al. 2006). During this time the recurrence interval of debris flows varies between 1 and 127 years. At an average of every 16 years a debris flow was deposited. The comparison with climatic phases, from the "Medieval Warm Period" to the "Little Ice Age" showed no significant correlation of events in the catchment area of lake Braies with climatic phases.
The study shows that lake sediments represent a good archive for reconstructing debris flows. In doing so, the record provides the possibility of estimation from the past the threat posed by natural hazards and gives important data for future hazard prediction assessment.

References:

IRMLER, R.; DAUT, G. & MÄUSBACHER, R. (2006): A debris flow calendar derived from sediments of lake Lago di Braies (N. Italy). Geomorphology 77:69-78
IRMLER (2003): Seesedimente als natürliches Archiv zur Erstellung eines Murkalenders am Beispiel des Pragser Wildsees (Norditalien). Ph.D. Thesis, University of Jena, Germany.

Swiss glaciers still have fever

The published results of length variation of Swiss glaciers confirm the general recession trend of glaciers in the Alps observed since 1980. 79 glaciers showed a retreat in 2008, only 5 a small advance (with length gain between 5 and 10m), and 2 remained stationary. Notable the length loss of the Eiger glacier with 225m and Gorner glacier with 290m.

Legend: blue triangle: advancing glacier, yellow: retreating glacier, grey: stationary glacier

Legend: Percentage of advancing Swiss glaciers (blue), stationary glaciers (green) and retreating glaciers (red) in the last 100 years.

References:

Gletscherberichte (1881-2008). "Die Gletscher der Schweizer Alpen", Jahrbücher der Expertenkommission für Kryosphärenmessnetze der Akademie der Naturwissenschaften Schweiz (SCNAT) herausgegegeben seit 1964 durch die Versuchsanstalt für Wasserbau, Hydrologie und Glaziologie (VAW) der ETH Zürich. No. 1-124, (http://glaciology.ethz.ch/swiss-glaciers/).

World Wide Water

96% of one of the most important resources on earth can be found underground - potable water. For thousand of years, wells and natural springs have supplied clean and abundant groundwater to human communities’ throughout the world.
Even if groundwater was and is so important, until now there was no map or data about the global distribution of it in the underground. But now the first results of the in the year 2000 initiated International Hydrologic Program (IHP), coordinated by the UNESCO, are presented – the "World-wide Hydrological Mapping and Assessment Programme" (WHYMAP). In the databank were mapped all aquifers extending about country borders - in total 273.
68 aquifers can be found in North- and South America, 38 in Africa, 65 in Europe, and 12 in Asia. The maps also show the water quality and the amount that the reservoirs contain.
65% of the global Groundwater were used as drink water, Europe covers 70% of it need, some countries, especially in dry regions, cover 100% of their water-need with groundwater.

It’s interesting to note that the African continent possesses aquifers, which contain vast amounts of water. Once precipitation, that felt 10.000 to 6.000 years ago, when the climatic shift brought wet air masses were today you can find the saharian desert.

Arctic getting hot

The now published annual report by the american National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) claims that the average air-temperature this autumn in the Arctic is 5° higher then the long-term average. The vanishing ice cover provides less reflection and isolation, and the darker seawater adsorbs more radiation. The actually measured ice cover is lesser by 34% to the average from 1979-2003, only 2007 showed a higher value, with 43%.

Arctic Report Card 2008

Glacier Change

Waxeggkees (Zillertaler Alps) ca. 1900-1906 and 2006

Changes related to frost and snow in Europe

Changes in indices related to frost and snow in Europe by the end of the twenty-first century were analyzed based on experiments performed with seven regional climate models (RCMs). All the RCMs regionalized information from the same general circulation model (GCM), applying the IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing scenario. In addition, some simulations used SRES B2 radiative forcing and/or boundary conditions provided by an alternative GCM. Ice cover over the Baltic Sea was examined using a statistical model that related the annual maximum extent of ice to wintertime coastal temperatures. Fewer days with frost and snow, shorter frost seasons, a smaller liquid water equivalent of snow, and milder sea ice conditions were produced by all model simulations, irrespective of the forcing scenario and the driving GCM. The projected changes have implications across a diverse range of human activities. Details of the projections were subject to differences in RCM design, deviations between the boundary conditions of the driving GCMs, uncertainties in future emissions and random effects due to internal climate variability. A larger number of GCMs as drivers of the RCMs would most likely have resulted in somewhat wider ranges in the frost, snow and sea ice estimates than those presented in this paper.

JYLHA et al. (2008): Changes in frost, snow and Baltic sea ice by the end of the twenty-first century based on climate model projections for Europe. Climatic Change Vol. 86, 3-4

Recent Antarctic ice mass loss

Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling

Large uncertainties remain in the current and future contribution to sea level rise from Antarctica. Climate warming may increase snowfall in the continent's interior, but enhance glacier discharge at the coast where warmer air and ocean temperatures erode the buttressing ice shelves. Here, we use satellite interferometric synthetic-aperture radar observations from 1992 to 2006 covering 85% of Antarctica's coastline to estimate the total mass flux into the ocean. We compare the mass fluxes from large drainage basin units with interior snow accumulation calculated from a regional atmospheric climate model for 1980 to 2004. In East Antarctica, small glacier losses in Wilkes Land and glacier gains at the mouths of the Filchner and Ross ice shelves combine to a near-zero loss of 461 Gt /yr. In West Antarctica, widespread losses along the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas increased the ice sheet loss by 59% in 10 years to reach 13260 Gt/yr in 2006. In the Peninsula, losses increased by 140% to reach 6046 Gt /yr in 2006. Losses are concentrated along narrow channels occupied by outlet glaciers and are caused by ongoing and past glacier acceleration. Changes in glacier flow therefore have a significant, if not dominant impact on ice sheet mass balance.

Nature Geoscience
Landsat Image Mosaic Of Antarctica (LIMA) http://lima.usgs.gov/