Glacier outburst floods threat

Glaciers can influence societies in their catchment area in different ways, they act as a water storage for dry summers, but glaciers can also trigger geological catastrophes and endanger people.

Glacier outburst floods (GOF) refer to the rapid and sudden discharge of water from within a glacier or from an ice-dammed lake, within minutes to hours a flood wave occurs possibly damaging infrastructures and killing people kilometres away from the glacier which initiated the disaster. In the Alps and North America most outburst floods occur in summertime when during melt-season large quantities of water can accumulate inside the glacier or as ice-dammed lake.

In the Andes and the Himalaya also a second type of floods is common, outbursts from moraine-dammed lakes, referred as glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF).
The area between the moraine and the retreating glacier can be filled with the melt-water, and as the glacier continues to shrink the lake continues to grow. Various processes can lead to the failure of a moraine dam, waves and currents of the lake can erode the dam, ice contained in the dam can melt, the detritus forming the dam can settle with time and so lowering the effective height of the dam.

Fig.1. Laguna Paron (4.140m a.s.l. Cordillera Blanca - Peru, foto from Wikipedia) in 2009, a lake dammed by the debris-mantled glacier Hatunraju with a capacity of 75 million cubic metres before the lake level was lowered by 20 meters artificially by tunnelling through bedrock on the left of the moraine dam. The lake is surrounded by moraines 250m high. It is unknown how stable the moraine of Hatunraju is, if this dam fails a flood of around 50 million cubic metres could sweep downstream and severely damage the town of Caraz, 16 kilometres away.
The worst glacial lake outburst in historic time was caused by the failure of such a moraine-dam in Peru. December 3. 1941 the town of Huaraz was partially destroyed by a flood that killed 60.000 people.

Floods resulting from moraine-dam failure have been increasing in frequency in the Himalaya over the past 70 years or so, although in terms of loss of life they have been by accident much less disastrous then in the Andes.
One of the best-documented outburst floods in Nepal took place on 4. August 1985 when the terminus of the Langmoche Glacier in the Khumbu Himal collapsed into Dig Tsho glacial lake (Video), creating a displacement wave hat overtopped the moraine dam and triggered its collapse. Estimated 10 million cubic metres of water were released - the wave destroyed a power plant and five people were killed and eroded and destabilized the valley floor for 90 kilometres downstream.

This case triggered major research projects of potential dangerous glaciers and glacial lakes, until 2004 more then 20 potentially dangerous lakes in Nepal and 24 in Bhutan were identified, one of the most impressive and dangerous case was lake Tsho Rolpa (4.450m a.s.l.), fed by the Trakarding Glacier. By 2002 the lake was 3,5 kilometres long, 0,5 kilometres width and 135m deep, with an estimated volume of 110 million cubic metres. The moraine damming the lake up was 150m high, with a core of decaying ice.
Emergency measures were initiated with the installation of an early-warning system to detect downstream travelling a flood-wave and later by the construction of an artificial spillway, lowering the lake by 4 metres.
However these are considered only temporary solutions, as a lowering of the lake level by at lest 15 to 20 metres is necessary to prevent spillover or failure of the dam crest, a costly procedure in this region.

This last case shows also the financial problems facing poor countries, often disaster prevention or mitigation are limited by the available resources, and considering the continuing glacier retreat expected in the next decades the increase of problematic lakes (both in number and volume) will by of major concern in the future.

Fig.2. The glacierized Himalayan border region of Bhutan (bottom) and Tibet (top) seen in a satellite image. From the crest of the mountain range clean glaciers flow northwards onto the Tibetan Plateau, while debris-mantled glaciers flow south into densely forested valleys.
At bottom right are a series of moraine-dammed lakes and incipient lakes, formed by the rapid coalescence of supraglacial ponds. The large lake at the very right is lake Luggye Tsho. A breach of the dam in 1994 led to severe flooding and loss of life up to 200 kilometres downstream. (ASTER-image by NASA, 08 June 2006).

Bibliography:

HAMBREY, M. & ALEAN, J.(2004): Glaciers. 2nd ed. Cambridge University Press: 377
HORSTMANN, B. (2004): Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in Nepal and Switzerland. New Threats Due to Climatic Change. Germanwatch - Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung.
KALTENBORN, B. P., NELLEMANN, C., VISTNESS, I. I. (Eds) (2010): High mountain glaciers and climate change - Challenges to human livelihoods and adaptation. United Nations Environment Programme, GRID-Arendal.

Modeling Glacier Change 2000-2100

According to a simulation by researchers of the University of Alaska (RADIC, V. & HOCK, R.) and based on various scenarios of precipitation change and a temperature increase, with a mean value of ca. 2°C, as predicted by most climate models, until the year 2100 the 120.000 glaciers located (mainly) in middle latitudes will experience a massive loss of 21% of the actual ice volume.

Observing the reactions of more than 300 glaciers to the climatic change in the period of 1963 to 2004 the models were extrapolated to simulate a significant increase in temperature and slight increase in precipitation and the effects of these variables on the mass balance of the glaciers.
The projections show in the 19 chosen glacierized regions different glacier retreat values, depending from factors like elevation, surface properties and effective temperature rise in the region.
According to the proposed scenarios, mountain ranges in temperate climatic zones will experience the most massive volume change, in the European Alps glacier will loss up to 75% of the actual ice volume, similar values to the New Zealand Alps with 72% and the Caucasus.
In contrast mountain ranges with a high average altitude, like in Asia or the Andes, will experience much lower loss percentages, with an average value of 20%.

I discussed a previous research dealing with possible effects of such glacier retreat on human society in this post.

Fig.1. Regional twenty-first-century glacier volume change expressed in per cent from initial volume in year 2000, the results are presented for 19 regions based on temperature and precipitation projections from the ten applied climatic models, after RADIC & HOCK 2011.

Fig.2. Example of glacier retreat in the Alps in the past 100 years: The Waxegg-glacier in the Zillertaler Alps at the border between Austria and Italy ca. 1900-1903 and 2006. Historic image from ROTHPLETZ, A. & PLATZ, E. (1903): Alpine Majestäten und ihre Gefolge - Die Gebirgswelt der Erde in Bildern, 268 Ansichten aus der Gebirgswelt.
For the history of glacier monitor projects see this post.

Bibliography:

RADIC, V. & HOCK, R. (2011): Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise. Nature Geoscience doi:10.1038/ngeo1052

Cool Science at Scientific American

Since antiquity snow-covered peaks have been ignored, avoided or even feared by men - up here apparently there was nothing to be gained.
But in search of adventure and knowledge during the 19th century mountains and glaciers became more and more visited by mountaineers, naturalists and even queens - and today the science of glaciers demonstrate urgently how the climate and our interference is changing the world.

Thanks to Bora Zivkovic and the editors of Scientific American I was allowed to present A Short History of Glacier Science at the journal´s Guest Blog.

Fig.1. Queen Margherita of Italy (second from left) and company climbing the Monte Rosa (4.420m) in the Italian-Swiss Alps in the year 1893. The Queen was determined to inaugurate in person a weather station on the summit on the mountain (from BAILEY 1983).

Bibliography:

BAILEY, R.H. (1983): Glacier. Time-Life Books, Amsterdam: 176